Recently I have had two of my most senior employees come to me seperately and suggest new products for the company to build. I encourage this of course, but find I have to help them understand some things about what I call Disciplined Entrepreneurism.
Ultimately when you decide to build a product for general sale you have three choices:
1. Invent something
2. Copy something
3. Enhance something
Each of these has its strengths and weaknesses. For #1 you have to really have a good idea and you have to bear the burden of educating the world they need something they never had before. In path #2 you have to make sure you can do it so much better that you can overtake the current vendors. And with #3 you build an add on to an existing product as part of its ecosystem, so that means your only customers are the people who bought the thing you are enhancing.
None of these is easy and none is a “sure thing”. I find that it is a slow road with luck and hard work playing equal roles in most cases. Misjudging the market is a common mistake, but not doing any market research ahead of time is by far the most common mistake.
Our head developer of our FSM product, Amr (he specifically asked me to mention him when I told him I planned to blog about this), throught that it might be a good idea for us to develop a Facebook Application. My response was to point out that Facebook, iPhone apps and other applications seem like a great way to get rich, but the failure rate is enormous
my research says that it costs tens of thousands of dollars to bring one to market successfully as very, very few make any money at all the average lose money if the idea is good enough then you have a better chance, but everyone thinks they have the killer idea. The costs go way up if you advertise it with some having spent as much as a million dollars. There really are no shortcuts to wealth
You should never just build an application. You should first figure out the odds of it actually making money otherwise you spend your life just writing code and never make any headway.
The key is to jump in before the market gets too saturated and to do some pragmatic thought about the potential of your product idea. Rather than look to Facebook or iPhone apps I think Windows Phone 7 applications is a much better landscape since there is still room for new players to make a mark. Just remember that you have to tamp down your wishful instincts…
While I resisted Twitter for a long time, not too long ago I started following selected individuals on Twitter including Richard Campbell (richcampbell on twitter). I plan to start using Twitter myself hopefully to communicate things of value, but for now I am using it as a comsumer.
This morning Richard tweeted “Four things to write this weekend… is it wrong to do them in the order of how much they pay?”. This got me thinking about my own task juggling over the years. When I was in college I learned that there are times that you have more to do than can humanly be done. This was in fact a central part of the pressure West Point put on us while we were cadets there. To cope I came to the conclusion that the juggling metaphor is quite apt. The thing to realize is that not all balls (tasks) are created equal. Some are made of rubber and some are made of glass. Rubber balls bounce and you recover even if you let them drop from time to time. Glass balls shatter if you drop them even once. The key is to identify which kind of ball a task represents and there lies the rub.
We see the same decision points when we undertake software development. I try to tell people over and over that security is a task of glass.
For the record, I think Richard has his priorities correct all things being equal…
IBM has decided to build the mother of all Cloud Computing data centers in of all places, China. I will advise all that will listen that this is a fantastic blunder since China is the absolute worst choice for such a resource. I do not want any of my corporate code and data or the data from customers housed inside China.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not xenophobic by any means and am even not violently opposed to offshore development or data centers. The problem is that China is the capital of corporate espionage and the worst offender in the world of not respecting the intellectual property of others.
This is a big win for Microsoft Azure and Amazon unless I missed similar announcements from them (which I doubt).
The first mission of a Cloud Computing provider is to provide security of the data and I just don’t see that happening if the data is in China.
If you looked into playing with Azure in the past, but did not jump in then it is time to take another look. Microsoft has added options over the last year that really remove objections to trying it out. If you have an MSDN subscription then you pretty much get a free playground in Azure that is going to waste if you don’t use it and if you don’t there is still the Introductory Special that goes through the end of March that gives you access to the basics of the service at no cost.
To look it over go to the Windows Azure Offers page at Microsoft.com and get going. You might not have a project that fits the Azure model currently, but you will. I am working on a new product for DTS that will have an Azure component and while it is still off in the horizon the time to jump in is before you are behind.